Although his trial may not start for another year – and although the outcome of every trial is always uncertain – my prediction is “he’s taking the fall.”
It’s not too early to start thinking about where 58-year-old Keith Alan Raniere (AKA The Vanguard) may spend the next 20 years or so of his life.
This is, therefore, as good a time as any to begin to look at how the Feds determine where to place particular prisoners.
First, it’s important to note that the “designation process” is controlled by the Bureau of Prisons (BOP). While the sentencing judge can make a recommendation as to where a prisoner should serve his/her time, in the end, it’s the BOP who has final say. Although the BOP states it treats judicial recommendations seriously, it emphasizes that such recommendations will not override security concerns.
The BOP has a special unit located in Grand Prairie, TX that is responsible for deciding where a prisoner should be designated. It also has a 108-page manual that describes the factors it takes into consideration when making that decision.
The first thing the BOP determines is the prisoner’s “security level”. To do that, the BOP relies on information contained in the “Presentence Investigative Report” – which is compiled by the local U.S. Probation and Pretrial Services (USPPS) officer who has been assigned to a case.
In Vanguard’s case, the USPPS has already recommended that he not be released on bail while awaiting trial – which does not bode well for him in terms of what his “Presentence Investigative Report” will recommend if he is convicted. Even if he gets a new USPPS officer to compile the report [again, assuming he is convicted], that officer will have access to the prosecutors – and the trial judge – in putting together that report which will likely seal the fate of the Vanguard in regard to where his next and perhaps final home will be.
If Raniere is convicted of any sex-related crime, he will automatically be given the “Sex Offender Public Safety Factor” – which means he must be designated to a “secure facility”. Even if he somehow avoids that, he’ll still end up in a “maximum security facility” if his sentence is more than 10-years.
A conviction on a sex-related crime could also result in Raniere being ordered to participate in a sex offender treatment program – which could have an impact on where he’s assigned (Not every federal prison operates such a program). Should that event occur, Raniere will find himself surrounded by sex offenders – which, incidentally, is exactly his current situation at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, NY, where he remains incarcerated, having been denied bail, as he awaits trial.
In addition to looking at the crimes that a prisoner was convicted of, the BOP may take into consideration any other crimes the prisoner was accused of. In Raniere’s case, this will likely end up being a dozen or more crimes.
The BOP will also take into consideration the location of a prisoner’s family when deciding where to send the prisoner. In Raniere’s case, his only known family is his elderly father, who has not visited him since he’s been incarcerated — and his two sons, one of whom is in hiding from him and the other of whom is in Mexico.
It’s not likely that the BOP will take into consideration the location of harem members or DOS slaves when it’s deciding where to place the prisoner Raniere.
What are the likely prospects for Raniere’s new “home-away-from-home”? As the BOP notes on its website, it has “many facilities”. In fact, it has 122 prison locations – plus another 11 facilities operated by private corporations.
If Raniere is designated to stay in the Northeast Region, there are numerous options for where he could be assigned. But only three of them are “maximum security” level prisons – which is where The Vanguard will almost certainly end up:
– Allenwood (Pennsylvania)
– Canaan (Pennsylvania)
– Lewisburg (Pennsylvania)
Of course, there’s another possibility – especially as more evidence unfolds about how dangerous Raniere truly is: If the BOP decides that Raniere is a very dangerous criminal – [capable of manipulating, influencing, hypnotizing, brainwashing or otherwise potentially harming other prisoners or guards] – it may decide to play it safe and send him to the one place where he will have little chance to use his ‘Tech” on other prisoners or employees of the prison. That facility is ADX Florence, the supermax prison located in Colorado.
Here’s a little bit of Wikipedia’s description of what that place is like:
ADX Florence is a 37-acre, 490-bed complex at 5880 Highway 67, Florence, Colorado, about 100 miles south of Denver and 40 miles south of Colorado Springs. It is one part of the Florence Federal Correctional Complex (FFCC) which comprises three correctional facilities, each with a different security rating.
The majority of the facility is above ground. The only part that is underground is a subterranean corridor that links cellblocks to the lobby. Inmates spend 23 hours a day locked in their cells and are escorted by a minimum of three officers for their five hours of private recreation per week.
Each cell has a desk, a stool, and a bed, which are almost entirely made out of poured concrete, as well as a toilet that shuts off if blocked, a shower that runs on a timer to prevent flooding, and a sink lacking a potentially dangerous tap.
Rooms may also be fitted with polished steel mirrors bolted to the wall, an electric light that can be shut off only remotely, a radio, and on rare occasions, a black-and-white television that shows recreational, educational, and religious programming.
In addition, all cells are soundproofed to prevent prisoners from communicating with each other via Morse code.
The 1⁄3-by-4-foot windows are designed to prevent inmates from knowing their specific location within the complex because they can see only the sky and roof through them, making it virtually impossible to plan an escape.
Inmates exercise in a concrete pit resembling an empty swimming pool, also designed to prevent them from knowing their location in the facility.The pit is only large enough for a prisoner to walk 10 steps in a straight line, or 31 steps in a circle.
Telecommunication with the outside world is forbidden, and food is hand-delivered by correction officers. However, inmates sent here from other prisons can potentially be allowed to eat in a shared dining room.
The prison as a whole contains a multitude of motion detectors and cameras, and 1,400 remote-controlled steel doors.
Officers in the prison’s Control Center monitor inmates 24 hours a day and can activate a “panic button” that instantly closes every door in the facility should an escape attempt be suspected.
Pressure pads and 12-foot-tall razor wire fences surround the perimeter, which is patrolled by heavily armed officers.
In the case of inmates who are deemed to be extreme security risks, the center of the prison houses an area known as “Z-Unit”. Each of the three Z-Unit cells is equipped with a full set of body restraints that are built directly into the concrete bed, as is true for every cell in the facility.
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Of course, Raniere may not go to the supermax. He may just get a high-security designation.
All high-security federal prisons have either multiple reinforced fences or an actual wall surrounding the prison. Most also have gun towers. All types of prisoners are permitted to be housed in high-security prisons, though some, such as sex offenders and informants, have a hard time staying due to violent acts perpetrated against them. As far as regular security federal prisons go, high-security prisons have the highest staffing levels.
Now for some artwork on the man known to be one of the top three problem solvers in the world to illustrate the problem he now must solve. {Note to Raniere’s lawyers- these are not actual photographs].
He was once a happy little guy who enjoyed teaching his many followers and relaxing in his Clifton Park gardens.
Now he resides in swank accommodations in Brooklyn.
When he’s convicted, he will be relocated to a maximum security facility somewhere – quite possibly in Colorado.
Of course, with the Bronfman money, perhaps Keith thinks he can simply buy his way out of this predicament.
